Sub-Saharan Africa’s green transition could create between 3.8 million and 7.9 million direct and indirect jobs by 2030, with that figure rising to between 65.9 million and 84.5 million by 2050, according to a report released on June 15 by FSD Africa, a UK-backed development agency, in partnership with human resources consulting firm Shortlist and the Shell Foundation.
The report, Unlocking Africa’s Green Transition: Opportunities Towards a Green and Inclusive Workforce, says the difference between the lower and upper estimates for 2030—4.1 million jobs—represents the additional employment that targeted policies could unlock.
According to the report, three factors will be critical to reaching the upper end of that range: greater investment in clean cooking, stronger regulatory frameworks for electric mobility, and better enforcement of existing circular economy regulations.
The report states “The 18.6 million gap between the 2050 high and low employment scenarios is influenced by two factors: technology productivity and climate risk.
Typically, where technology matures faster, direct employment per unit of output falls. But Africa’s distributed service models are expected to retain higher employment intensity than high-income markets because manual installation, last-mile logistics and agent-based customer service cannot be easily automated. Where climate risk is higher, realised employment is lower than the headline target because reduced generation capacity and agricultural stress reduce operational demand for workers.”
In general, faster advances in technology reduce the number of direct jobs. However, Sub-Saharan Africa’s green transition is expected to rely heavily on decentralized service models that require installation, last-mile logistics, and customer support—activities that are far less likely to be automated than those in higher-income economies.
The study also identifies clean cooking as the region’s largest source of green jobs. The sector could create up to 2.5 million jobs by 2030 and about 26.3 million by 2050 under the report’s high-growth scenario. Most of those jobs would come from micro-distributors, maintenance technicians, and community-based agents.
Waste recycling ranks second, with the potential to generate 1.08 million jobs by 2030 and 14.7 million by 2050. It is followed by off-grid solar home systems, which could support 960,000 jobs by 2030 and 14.4 million by 2050, and electric two- and three-wheelers, with projections of 630,000 jobs by 2030 and 10.1 million by 2050.
According to the report, these value chains are particularly labor-intensive, have relatively low barriers to entry, and rely on business models that create opportunities for workers in informal, peri-urban, and rural communities.
The report expects utility-scale solar to expand more slowly than other green industries because many of its jobs are tied to the construction phase and are therefore temporary. As a result, countries that prioritize clean cooking and solar home systems (SHS) over large-scale solar projects are likely to see a very different employment outlook through 2050.
The report also says green job creation will follow two distinct regional paths. One will be driven by East and Southern Africa, while the other will be shaped by West and Central Africa. The differences will largely reflect each region’s policy environment, market structure, and enabling conditions.
East and Southern Africa are expected to account for 58% of all green jobs in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2050, even though they are home to only 40% of the region’s population—a share that is expected to remain broadly unchanged through 2050. West and Central Africa would account for the remaining 42% of projected green jobs.
According to the report, most green jobs in Sub-Saharan Africa will come from services rather than large infrastructure projects or manufacturing. Indirect jobs linked to installation, distribution, operations, and last-mile services are expected to account for 56% of all green jobs by 2030, rising to 62% by 2050.
That means Africa’s green economy will continue to rely heavily on independent operators and nano- and microenterprises, many of which operate in the informal sector. Together, they are expected to employ between 29 million and 37 million people by 2050.
Even so, informality across green value chains is expected to decline as industries mature. The report projects the informal employment rate will fall from 85%-92% by 2030 to 55%-75% by 2050, driven largely by the expansion of electric mobility and solar home systems. As these industries develop, larger service networks requiring certified technicians and formal contracts are expected to emerge, making it easier to access institutional financing and public procurement opportunities.
The report also identifies workforce skills as a challenge on par with access to capital. While basic installation skills are already widely available, demand is growing for more specialized expertise in areas such as remote operations using Internet of Things (IoT) technology, battery management systems, and carbon emissions measurement.
Read full report, visit the link here
